Aug 6, 2007

Gold to Rise Above $1,000 on Jewelry

Gold will surge to more than $1,000 an ounce driven by increased jewelry demand and a weaker dollar, Newmont Mining Corp. Vice Chairman Pierre Lassonde said.

``Gold's time is coming,'' Lassonde said at the Diggers & Dealers conference in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia today. The price will have three zeros, ``I just don't know what the first number is going to be,'' he said, without giving a timeframe.


The supply of gold from mines is dropping as companies fail to make major discoveries and licensing issues slow down construction, Lassonde, 60, said. Gold jewelry demand is expected to rise from last year's value of $45 billion, he said. Gold at $1,000 would be 49 percent higher than today's price.


``The outlook for gold is bullish, but there's perhaps some vested interest in those forecasts,'' said Michael Widmer, the head of metals research at Calyon, the investment banking unit of Credit Agricole SA.


Gold for immediate delivery rose as much as $1.30, or 0.2 percent, to $674.30 an ounce today, and traded at $672.68 at 6:31 p.m. Sydney time. Gold futures reached a nominal record of $873 an ounce in January 1980, while the spot price reached a 26-year high of $730.40 in May, 2006.


`Bull Market'


``This bull market in natural resources will last a whole generation, that's 20 years,'' Lassonde said in remarks to the conference. ``China and India will have hiccups but, no, they will not stop growing.''


Gold and oil will be the best performing commodities in the current cycle, while the prices of copper and molybdenum have peaked, he said. Gold will rise to more than $850 within 12 months, and will rise above $750 by fall, Lassonde said.


Calyon's Widmer said he's forecasting average prices of $650 for the current quarter, and $700 for the final three months of 2007. ``The average for next year, I think, will reach $720,'' he said. ``We can still go higher from where we are.''


The price of gold will be boosted by increased global wealth, which will spur jewelry sales, Lassonde said. Jewelry accounted for two-thirds of gold demand in the first quarter.


Demand in India, the world's largest buyer, rose by half in the first quarter from a year earlier to 211 metric tons, while demand in China gained 31 percent, the London-based World Gold Council said in May. Demand growth may have continued at that rate during the second quarter, the Council said July 3.


``That is what is underpinning the demand for gold, is that the world is getting richer and richer,'' Lassonde said separately in an interview. ``It is not just the China, India story here, it is a world story.''


The precious metal, which often moves in the opposite direction to the dollar, may also gain as the U.S. currency declined, Lassonde said. The euro has risen 7.7 percent against the dollar in the past 12 months.


Lassonde retired in December as president of Denver-based Newmont, the world's second-biggest gold producer. Toronto-based Barrick Gold Corp. is the world's biggest gold producer.
Source: bloomberg

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